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Axios
Axios (website)
Axios is an American news website based in Arlington, Virginia. It was founded in 2016 and launched the following year by former Politico journalists Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, and Roy Schwartz. The site's name is based on the Ancient Greek ἄξιος.
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Women candidates won enough races Tuesday to set a new record for Democratic women's representation in the U.S. House — among other historic firsts in Congress and governor's races nationwide. The big picture: The spike for Democratic Women's Caucus members in the House alone marks an increase of more than 60% since 2016. At least 100 Democratic women and 16 Republican women have won House seats as of Wednesday morning, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. The total is expected to climb for candidates across both parties, with dozens of races still uncalled. What they're saying: "Despite Republican attempts to silence us and take away our rights, we have built a coalition in Congress that is bigger and more powerful than ever," DWC Chairwoman Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.) said in a statement. "We smashed through a glass ceiling," she added. "Because of the hard work of so many, Congress will look more like America." The intrigue: Women veterans are poised to make gains in Congress after 38 ran in Tuesday's general election — up from 21 in 2024, per civic organization With Honor Action . Several Democratic women veterans are leading in competitive House races that could flip Republican-held seats. In South Carolina , retired Navy Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore, who was removed as chief of the Navy Reserve under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, leads Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt in the race for former Rep. Nancy Mace's seat. In Arizona, Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza leads Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani. In Ohio, Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker leads Republican Rep. Mike Turner. The AP had not called any of the three races as of Wednesday morning State of play: Democratic women could gain powerful committee chair positions as control of Congress shifts. Currently, just one woman chairs a standing House committee: Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), who leads the powerful Rules Committee. She's locked in a razor-thin reelection race against Democrat Chuck Hubbard. Among those already likely positioned for gavels: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) on their chambers' Appropriations committees, which oversee federal spending. Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), currently Democrats' minority whip, could become the first woman to serve as majority leader, two decades after Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) become the first woman speaker of the House. Zoom out: Women are also taking over governor's mansions across the nation. Progressive, pro-women EMILYs List said Wednesday that a record-high number of Democratic women governors are poised to serve in 2027. That includes Keisha Lance Bottoms , who boxed Republicans out in Georgia and will become the first Black woman governor in U.S. history. Deb Haaland , who won New Mexico's gubernatorial election, has become the first Indigenous woman elected governor of a U.S. state, per AP . There were also historic firsts for Republican women: Republican Julia Letlow is Louisiana's first Republican woman elected to the Senate. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) will be Tennessee's first woman governor. What we're watching: There's still plenty of dust still to settle in the wake of a massive midterms shakeup . But one thing is clear: A historic coalition of women is headed to Capitol Hill. Go deeper: Hakeem Jeffries gets the majority of his dreams
Avery Lotz ·
Democrats wasted no time gloating and warning the Trump administration about a pending flood of subpoenas and investigations once the 2026 midterm blue wave became clear. Why it matters: Democrats are eager to exercise their oversight powers over the president and his allies, but they must navigate that while addressing Americans' No. 1 election concern — the high cost of living. Driving the news: Before the AP even called the House for Democrats, expected House Oversight Chair Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) said in a statement that the president's allies should "[l]awyer up." He seconded the sentiment in a Wednesday post to X. Sen. Ron Wyden posted on X Tuesday night, "[s]ubpoenas." In response to a post from former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who said the Trump administration was "too successful" during its first year, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) responded, "[w]ant to say that under oath?" The big picture: Voters aren't necessarily asking Democrats to choose between the cost of living and accountability. They want action on both. About half of voters said the high cost of living and government corruption were "crucial" to their votes for Congress, per the AP's Voter Poll. Roughly four in 10 voters said the economy was the top issue facing the country, compared with three in 10 who said it was democracy. Seven in 10 said Congress isn't doing enough to check presidential power. What they're saying: When asked about Wyden and Garcia's comments in an interview Wednesday morning, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) — the overwhelming favorite to become House Speaker — told TODAY that the "American people clearly don't want us to try and get even." "They want us to get things done to make their life more affordable. At the same period of time, what we have seen is unprecedented corruption unleashed on America, the likes of which we have never seen before." "And when you have people in high office who are so focused on enriching themselves, their family members, their friends, and their donors, it's clear to the American people that that means you have a Congress or White House or Supreme Court not focused on actually addressing the needs of working class folks." The White House didn't immediately respond to Axios' request for comment. Zoom in: Democrats have already laid out some of their main priorities for investigation. Garcia vowed Tuesday that House Dems would focus on probing Trump's family businesses, alleged corporate corruption and government contracts. He also said he'll investigate DHS and ICE misconduct allegations, as well as the Jeffrey Epstein files and the administration's handling of them. Other reporting has suggested Democrats might also probe the DOGE effort, or its de facto former leader, tech billionaire Elon Musk. President Trump said on Monday he's open to pardoning his allies and staff if Democrats target them. Reality check: Some legislative priorities Democrats want could also be easily blocked by the president's veto power. Democrats are not currently projected to win the 2/3 majority needed to override such a move on their own. A presidential pardon only erases liability in a federal case; it does not shield a recipient from civil or state-level charges or investigations. What we're watching: Whether Democrats truly pursue an effective oversight agenda and whether Democratic leadership can walk the tightrope of bringing costs down while doing so. Go deeper: Trump vows to protect Musk, floats pre-emptive staff pardons
Josephine Walker ·
A recurring subplot of President Trump's term has been a desire to replace Biden appointees to the powerful Federal Reserve Board of Governors — even ahead of their terms ending — with allies. That effort now looks dead in the water. Why it matters: Even if Trump succeeds in his efforts to fire governor Lisa Cook , or to oust any of the other three Biden-era holdovers on the seven-member board, a Democratic Senate will likely block any replacements it views as insufficiently independent from the administration. State of play: The president seeks to fire Cook — whose term runs through 2038 — for alleged mortgage fraud, an effort that has been blocked so far by the courts. The White House plans a hearing over the allegations next month. Former chair Jerome Powell has remained on the board as a governor, a term that ends in January 2028. Michael Barr, whom Biden appointed as top financial regulator, has remained in place as a governor in a term that extends to 2032. Philip Jefferson's term as vice chair ends this coming September, though his term as a governor extends to 2036. Between the lines: It would break with current precedent for those officials to stick around to the end of their terms. In recent decades, Fed governor spots have turned over much more regularly, particularly after their time as chair or vice chair ends. Powell, Barr and Jefferson may feel greater comfort relinquishing their roles as governors before the end of their terms if they are confident the Senate will block any replacements who don't respect the tradition of central bank independence. Of note: Sen. Elizabeth Warren is set to chair the Senate Banking Committee that must advance Fed governor nominees, and she has assailed chairman Kevin Warsh for being a "sock puppet" of the administration. Only one Senate Democrat, John Fetterman, voted to confirm Warsh.
Neil Irwin ·
World leaders are reacting to Democrats' comprehensive midterm wins, which saw them retake the Senate and flip the House on Tuesday night. Why it matters: The results could reshape President Trump's final two years in office, with major implications for U.S. relations with allies and adversaries alike. Zoom in: As Trump faces competing calls over whether to resume military action in Iran, Iranian officials supported the Democratic victories as a sign of opposition to the war. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X , "Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message." Prior to the election, regional mediators led by Qatar were trying to reach a diplomatic deal to restart negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to avoid reentering the war, three U.S., Israeli and regional sources said, but renewed fighting remains on the table. But while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to resume fighting in Iran, his political future remains uncertain, with neither bloc securing the 61-seat majority needed to form a government in Israel's recent election. Zoom out: Trump's second-term decisions have significantly strained relationships with U.S. allies and partners, leading countries to increasingly view Washington as unreliable, self-interested and less committed to global cooperation , according to Pew Research Center data. But Tuesday's election results appear to have infused renewed hope about relations from international leaders. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez applauded Americans for voting "against policies that only make people poorer," and against "hate," "sexism," "climate denial" and "elite privilege," in a post on X ." South African President Cyril Ramaphosa told reporters he believes Democratic control of Congress will "introduce a new era in world relations," adding that he hopes for improved collaboration on geopolitics, trade and investment, Bloomberg reported. Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Ramaphosa, and prioritized South Africans for refugee admissions in fiscal year 2026, citing debunked " white genocide " claims — which falsely allege that white Afrikaners face racial violence by the country's majority Black population. The other side: Moscow signaled little optimism about the change in power, warning that Democratic control could further strain U.S.-Russia relations, particularly with tensions in Ukraine. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told RIA Novosti news network that Democrats' "approach to relations with Russia is extremely negative." Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning struck a measured tone, saying China hopes to "build a constructive relationship," and continue working with the U.S. Still, the U.S. Army Pacific is closely watching for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and beyond, which could quickly devolve into a bloodbath. Yes, but: Some leaders are also questioning how much progress Washington can make amid such deep political splits. Theo Francken, Belgium's Minister of Defense and Foreign Trade, said on X that governing in the U.S. will be "quasi impossible in the coming years with so much internal division and polarized power bastions." European Parliament Vice President Christel Schaldemose said she's "cautiously optimistic on Europe's behalf" and how it could benefit Ukraine and global relations. Go deeper: Blue tsunami breaks MAGA: 5 takeaways from a blowout midterm election
Rebecca Falconer, Julianna Bragg ·
The Iran war was the reason for the Democrats' blue tsunami that stunned Washington, Vice President Vance said in an X post Wednesday morning. Why it matters: The VP offered a surprisingly blunt assessment of why the GOP got crushed Tuesday night — and started to put at least a little daylight between himself and President Trump as the 2028 cycle begins. Vance's comments come hours after Trump admitted the Iran war partly played a role in pushing Democrats over the edge. Driving the news: "The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night," Vance wrote on X . "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest." Vance's comments align with Trump, who told the Wall Street Journal: "Iran was a piece of it," though he did not say he regrets the war. What they're saying: Vance wrote on X that the "Democrat blowout" came despite optimism from within the White House about turnout and people "showing up." But, Vance said, "many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026" instead. The White House and vice president's office did not immediately respond to requests for comments Wednesday morning. Zoom in: Vance said Trump 2024 voters were angry with the administration and chose to embrace Dems. The GOP has to do four things to bring them back, he said: End the Iran war, focus on inflation, "put America First," and "change our relationship to Israel." "To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let's take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country," Vance wrote. Yes, but: Voters had other grievances in the election Tuesday night. Cost of living and government corruption were the two top issues in this year's election, per exit polls from AP . Gas prices and grocery costs have skyrocketed amid the Iran war and the president's tariff policies. Trump was also labeled "corrupt" and "dangerous" by majorities of registered voters in a poll prior to the election. The bottom line: Vance's candid response comes ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run. The vice president is already being watched by the pre-Trump Republican faction that never embraced Trump's takeover of the party, which might require him to distance himself from the president's policies. Editor's note: This story has been updated with new detail throughout.
Herb Scribner ·
Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) will announce his bid to lead House Republicans on Wednesday, a person familiar with his plans told Axios, as his party begins to regroup from stunning midterm losses that cost them their congressional majorities. Why it matters: Scalise's announcement sets up a potentially bruising battle for the minority leader post, with Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) also being floated as a potential contender. It's Scalise's second attempt at the top House Republican job. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told staff that he will not run for minority leader on a Wednesday morning call, a person familiar with his plans said. Driving the news: Scalise pitched himself as a leader positioned to bring Republicans back into the majority "He is a proven and tested leader who is ready on day one. He's spent his career unifying Republicans and he is prepared for the big legislative and oversight battles ahead. The conference knows him, how he fights, and that he's a trusted leader," the person familiar with his plans said in statement. Catch up quick: Scalise defeated Jordan in the Republican conference's secret-ballot vote to nominate a speaker in October 2023, but withdrew a day later after failing to secure enough support on the House floor. Johnson ultimately emerged as speaker after weeks of Republican infighting. State of play: A Scalise-Jordan race would pit two of the House GOP's most prominent figures against each other. Scalise enters the contest with more than a decade of experience in leadership, while Jordan could draw support from the party's conservative wing. But the scale of the loss on Tuesday night has prompted calls for an entirely new leadership slate — a potential stumbling block for Scalise. Three House Republicans previously told Axios that a major midterm defeat could fuel calls for an entirely new leadership team The intrigue: Majority Whip Tom Emmer, meanwhile is making calls to lock down support from him to stay on as whip in the minority, a person familiar with his plans told Axios. Emmer (R-Minn.) told Axios in September that he intends to remain in his current role rather than seek a higher leadership position. That could leave the losing candidate in a Scalise-Jordan matchup without an obvious fallback spot in the top leadership ranks. What's next: House Republicans are scheduled to elect their next leadership team on Nov. 10, with candidates facing a Friday deadline to declare their intentions. The winner needs a majority of House Republicans in a secret-ballot vote. Trump could play a pivotal role in determining the next top House Republican, and GOP lawmakers are watching closely to see whether he throws his support behind a candidate.
Kate Santaliz ·
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) plans to step down as the House's top Republican after his party's epic midterm election losses wiped out their majority, according to a person familiar with his plans. Why it matters: Johnson's exit touches off a potentially contentious scramble to replace him with Republicans days away from choosing their next leaders. Johnson told staff that he will not run for minority leader on a Wednesday morning call, the person familiar with his plans said. Driving the news : House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) have been floated as potential successors, setting the stage for a bruising leadership battle. Johnson's political future remains uncertain, with questions swirling over whether he will remain in Congress or leave the House altogether after three years as speaker. The Louisiana Republican had spent months traveling across the country and raising millions of dollars in a last-ditch effort to preserve the GOP's majority. Flashback Johnson ascended to the speakership in October 2023 as a little-known lawmaker after weeks of GOP turmoil following Kevin McCarthy's historic ousting . Johnson spent much of his speakership navigating razor-thin Republican majorities, managing persistent GOP infighting and repeated conservative rebellions that brought legislative business to a standstill. But he also emerged as a prolific fundraiser and close Trump ally, helping shepherd the president's legislative agenda through a fractious Republican conference. Yes, but: Johnson had publicly insisted he intended to remain in Republican leadership even if the GOP lost control of the House. After suggesting to Fox News , that he could return to Shreveport and start a lawn care business if Republicans lost the majority, Johnson told CBS News in October that he planned to remain the top House Republican regardless of the election's outcome. His political future had become the subject of private speculation among Republicans, with many lawmakers skeptical he would run for minority leader after a GOP loss. What's next: House Republicans are scheduled to hold leadership elections Nov. 10, with candidates facing a Friday deadline to declare their intentions. The race will be decided by a secret ballot of Republican members, requiring only a majority of the conference to win. Trump could play a pivotal role in determining Johnson's successor, and Republicans are watching closely to see whether he throws his support behind a candidate.
Kate Santaliz ·
Democrats' big night gives them a chance to turn voter anger over high energy prices into legislative action and congressional oversight, but divisions within the party could complicate their plans. Why it matters: This was an energy election . High gasoline prices, record diesel costs, and rising power bills fueled discontent with President Trump and his party. Voters' rebukes of data centers could slow the buildout of power-hungry AI infrastructure. The latest: Stunning Senate wins in red states and House wins nationwide propelled Democrats to control of both chambers, and flipped several governor's mansions. Energy costs were prominent in key races, such as Democrats hitting GOP rivals over farmers' bills in Iowa, Kansas and Ohio. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa (D) bashed Greg Abbott (R) over his prior embrace of data centers in the state where developers are planning big projects. The data center backlash also featured in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where Sherrod Brown defeated Sen. Jon Husted (R) and Paige Cognetti unseated Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R). Both Republicans faced criticism over their support for data centers. State of play: A detailed Democratic energy agenda hasn't emerged, but there are early clues. Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer tied Republicans to electricity costs in his first comments after returns came in. Likely Speaker-in-waiting Hakeem Jeffries has vowed to quickly push an affordability agenda, with energy as a key pillar. He tasked Reps. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) and Mike Levin (D-Calif.) with leading a "Gas and Utilities Affordability Working Group" that crafted ideas, though they remain under wraps. Another potential source of ideas: Hundreds of proposals backed this year by the 100-plus member House Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition. Some could gain bipartisan backing, like support for advanced nuclear power. But other areas would be largely symbolic, like restoring some IRA tax credits. Catch up quick: In the Senate, Schumer has offered broad areas of focus around grid development, affordability and consumer protections, and clean energy. He has vowed to restore clean energy tax credits, while pledging "systematic protection for consumers from rising prices." Other ideas include more support for energy efficiency and greater transparency in utility bills. The intrigue: Democrats did not make climate change a midterm messaging focus. Watch whether progressives push to revive an explicitly climate-focused agenda. My thought bubble: Don't expect Democrats to bring back their select committee on climate change, which Republicans disbanded after winning House control in 2022. There has not been a decision announced. But the party's shift away from messaging focused on climate is reason to be doubtful, even as global warming marches on. What's next: The most immediate thing to watch is how the results may affect the politics of the bipartisan permitting deal in the lame duck. Some House progressives have argued that Dems could get a permitting deal more to their liking next year. But backers of the current bill see almost no chance of a political opening to craft a more liberal bill that Trump would sign or could even clear the Senate. The permitting fight has also opened rifts within the Democratic coalition, with multiple unions and the clean energy industry backing the bill, while many environmentalists are undecided or flatly opposed. The debate also highlights broader divisions between the "abundance movement" and progressives who want a harder line against fossil fuels Those divisions could extend well beyond the lame duck permitting fight, influencing future legislative priorities and the policy agendas of presidential hopefuls as 2028 jockeying begins in earnest. The bottom line: One thing already clear is that Democrats are lining up energy-focused oversight of Trump's diesel agreement with Moscow, offshore wind policies and much more. Sign up here for Axios' Future of Energy newsletter.
Ben Geman ·
Democrats will be able to take plenty of messaging votes on health care after their blowout wins Tuesday — but they'll face too many limits and internal disagreements to force all of the big policy changes they want. Why it matters: They'll have a tough time repealing Medicaid cuts or restoring enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies while President Trump is still in office, and their own divisions will hold them back on other issues. And Medicare for All ? Last night gave the idea a big boost, but don't hold your breath. Friction point: With control of both the Senate and House, Democrats will have powerful new leverage — but that leverage will also expose fault lines. Until now, progressives backing Medicare for All and centrists favoring more incremental changes were united in opposing Trump administration policies and blaming the president and the Republican Congress for the health affordability crisis. They'll try to use their power in the next Congress to promote sweeping changes with an eye toward the 2028 elections while also advancing more piecemeal policies, hoping to force some deals with Republicans. But they'll still face divisions over how to expand the federal government's role in the health system, or how to bend the steep health cost curve. Driving the news: House Democrats have already signaled their opening moves with a 100-hour/100-day agenda agenda that prominently features health policies like reinstating the enhanced ACA tax credits that expired at the end of 2025. There will also be votes to roll back the steep cuts to federal Medicaid spending that Republicans included in their "One Big Beautiful Bill," per an 84-page memo from a health care working group to Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). Other near-term agenda items include expanding Medicare drug price negotiations to private insurance, restoring withheld National Institutes of Health research funding and ending the use of AI in authorizing certain services in traditional Medicare. Within the first year, the blueprint also envisions votes on Medicare for All, a government-run public insurance option and plans to let many Americans under 65 buy into Medicare. There will also be a heavy dose of oversight, with multiple committees intent on using their subpoena power to examine details of Trump's drug pricing deals and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s vaccine policies. Reality check: Little of this would reverse the rising cost of care. And Democrats could spend a lot of energy next year playing whack-a-mole trying to target various expenses, like hospital spending, insurance premiums and the cost of insulin. Some policies, like site-neutral hospital payments , could generate billions in new savings to pay for coverage expansions, and even generate some bipartisan support at a time when more lawmakers are fed up with hospital consolidation and prices. There's also growing interest in how surprise billing disputes are driving up costs. But Democrats won't be the only ones looking for fixes. An aggressive Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services under administrator Mehmet Oz is sure to continue pursing fraud and waste in federal health programs and cutting federal spending on subsidies. Between the lines: The biggest winner Tuesday may be the progressive wing of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Strengthened by the Senate victory of left-wing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the critical swing state of Michigan, the progressives can make a national case for Medicare for All — though the definition may be squishy. Expect many lawmakers to offer assurances that Americans can keep their health care if they want it, with a consensus likely forming around compromises like a Medicare buy-in. Actual dealmaking will largely be driven by big legislative vehicles, like bills to keep the government funded and address the debt ceiling, that could be magnets for health policy changes. There also are certain must-do's, like a "doc fix" to shield physicians from scheduled Medicare reimbursement cuts and a reauthorization of Food and Drug Administration user fees to fund new product reviews. The latter could also be a way for Democrats and Republicans to respond to growing concerns about China challenging U.S. dominance in drug development. What we're watching: Whether a "govern from the center, message from the left" strategy binds a caucus that isn't truly aligned on health care, or whether it quickly exposes rifts between establishment Democrats and the ascendant populist wing.
Adriel Bettelheim ·
Make no mistake: Democrats won by epic, sometimes historic margins across red and blue states, up and down ballots, obliterating almost everything President Trump, and a Republican Party remade wholly in his image, built over the past decade in American politics. Why it matters: Trump and Republicans are left with a mostly white, mostly old House and Senate minority, confronting a younger, more diverse ascendant Democratic Party with power and margins it hasn't held in 18 years, since the dawn of the Obama era. The results speak louder than any words we can write: Democrats won Senate races in Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Ohio, and perhaps Mississippi en route to what could be a 55-seat majority. Democrats won swing districts all across red America, with national average margins of victory of roughly 13 points, according to a New York Times estimate . Texas is now a Democratic state, top to bottom — unthinkable mere months ago. James Talarico crushed Ken Paxton ( 55% to 43% ) like it was Connecticut. State Representative Gina Hinojosa will become the first Democratic governor of Texas in 32 years . Pastor Adam Hamilton is the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas in 94 years. North Carolina looks like a true-blue state after Democrats flipped the Senate seat and likely ousted Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) — meaning he led the GOP drive to keep the House. North Carolina's congressional delegation could swing from 10R-4D to 5R-9D. Georgia was even worse for Republicans, where they lost all power at the state and U.S. Senate levels. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) predicted on X that the losses were so widespread, so deep, so severe that Republicans might not "have a shot at Senate control until 2032." How to think about last night more broadly: This is a 50-50 nation with fast, whiplash shifts in power at the federal level due to persistent discontent with the party in power. So, on one hand, this isn't terribly surprising. On the other, Republican losses were so deep, so wide, so everywhere that it would be foolish to see this as anything but a massive repudiation of Trump, his agenda, his style, his rhetoric and his presidency. If anything, what's left of the Republican Party is more pro-Trump and less likely to challenge him. His critics, even the timid ones, were ousted long before the general election. So Republicans are left with two more years of riding a very unpopular leader managing a very unpopular war. A trapped, embarrassed Trump is even more unpredictable. Democrats have the numbers to investigate Trump, his family and supporters, and the power to set the agenda in the House and Senate. The bottom line: Voters nationally said government corruption was a "crucial issue" in their vote for Congress. Democrats will spend months trying to rehab a party that, despite its victory, remains deeply unpopular as a brand. Expect a vigorous fight between Mamdani-like socialists and Schumer-like center-leftists. Top takeaways from Axios' Zachary Basu.
Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen ·
Voters showed deep distrust of the AI race Tuesday, approving dozens of data center moratoriums and electing a raft of candidates who favor slowing a $10 trillion buildout, including in Texas — the epicenter of the boom. Why it matters : In an election that hinged on an affordability crisis for many Americans, voters made it clear they view Silicon Valley's AI ambitions not as a technological miracle, but as a resource-draining threat to their wallets and communities. The results were a warning shot to some of the nation's wealthiest and most powerful executives, many of whom are already working on ways to build a more palatable version of the revolution they are dead-set on winning. "What we just witnessed was an AI earthquake," Brad Carson, co-founder of Americans for Responsible Innovation, told Axios. "Voters just sent a clear message that they want rules for AI and data centers." Driving the news: Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa's surprise victory in the Texas governor's race fundamentally scrambles the math for the AI buildout. Hinojosa campaigned on keeping a moratorium on data center construction in place until the state passes legislation tackling impacts on water, electricity, air and property rights in the legislative session that ends in mid-2027. While most 2027 U.S. data centers expected are already under construction, a hold for more than six months would bring extended delays to Texas, which accounts for 41% of new U.S. capacity in 2028, according to the research firm SemiAnalysis. Democrats won all three of the states that follow Texas for new data center capacity, including Ohio, Georgia and Arizona. The winners in Ohio and Georgia favor restrictive policies, although it's not yet clear how those will take shape. Between the lines: All told, nearly two-thirds of 2028 data center capacity could face delays, although most political analysts don't see Democrats permanently blocking construction. What they're saying: A host of candidates and politicos called out AI as one of the most important issues in the blue wave, an important signpost ahead of a momentous 2028 presidential race. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), a 2028 contender who won reelection by a wide margin, called out "the titans of Silicon Valley" in a victory speech, saying they "dig bunkers for themselves" even as they warn "that the artificial intelligence they're creating risks human extinction." AI had its "official debut" as the biggest issue in American politics, former New York Assemblymember and RAISE Act author Alex Bores told Axios. "AI is reaching into every part of our society and economy and it's now crystal clear it's impacting every part of our politics, too." By the numbers : The anti-tech sentiment extended far beyond those states. Out of 41 data center measures on the ballot across 10 states, about two dozen proposals designed to restrict or block development appeared to have passed based on initial returns , according to Ballotpedia. Ohio hosted the largest share of those ballot fights, and some votes are still forthcoming, including in Arkansas and North Dakota. Yes, but: In California, a measure that would've enacted a 5% wealth tax on individuals and trusts with more than $1 billion in assets appeared headed for defeat early Wednesday morning. Proposition 40 faced a well-funded opposition from the state's tech luminaries, as well as prominent Democrats like Gov. Gavin Newsom and Xavier Becerra. The intrigue: Leaning into AI skepticism proved to be a winning strategy for Democrats in swing districts. Democratic challengers successfully weaponized AI policy , ousting Republicans in Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Democratic groups had poured ads into these districts attacking GOP incumbents for a 2025 vote that would've neutered state AI legislation. AI safety advocates won or were poised to win races on Tuesday that will expand their coalition in the new Congress, including Colorado's Manny Rutinel and Minnesota's Matt Little. The bottom line : For years, tech execs have dictated the terms of a seemingly limitless expansion, but this election proves that the ballot box still reigns supreme.
Maria Curi ·
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is set to preside over a commanding Democratic majority after his party swept districts President Trump carried by double digits. Why it matters: Democrats' landslide win will make it much, much easier for the likely next speaker to secure the gavel without a sweat and ignore the demands of his progressive wing. Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), a leader of the center-left New Democrat Coalition, told Axios in an interview Tuesday night that Jeffries "now has the space to utilize his full talents as speaker." The size of Democrats' victory, Stanton said, "allows him to govern without worrying about being leveraged by anyone." Driving the news: Jeffries is on track to enjoy a majority of dozens of votes, with the New York Times projecting Democrats to win as many as 256 seats to Republicans' 178. Democrats flipped districts where the national parties didn't even spend money, likely unseating Republicans such as Reps. Lauren Boebert and Richard Hudson who were considered safe just months ago. It's a major partisan win for Democrats as a whole, but the party's centrist wing is also hailing the result as a much-needed strategic victory over the left. Zoom in: Progressives — particularly "The Bloc," a group made up of hard-charging leftists like Darializa Avila Chevalier and Adam Hamawy — had hoped to use a small majority to extract concessions from Jeffries. Many of them have declined to commit to supporting Jeffries as speaker and signaled they would use their votes as leverage force votes on progressive legislation such as Medicare-for-All, defunding ICE and cutting aid to Israel. But the left's strategy is "going to look different from what it would have been with a smaller margin," one incoming House progressive told Axios, noting that "leaders have more flexibility when they have big majorities." Progressives "can't really extract much now [with this] colossal majority," a progressive strategist acknowledged, adding that "we don't have to do this high stakes Jeffries fight." Between the lines: Stanton noted that most of the incoming Democrats who won in purple and red districts were endorsed by the New Dems. The center-left group is one of Jeffries' most reliable power bases in the caucus. "Every single New Dem incumbent, every single candidate that got our endorsement that's winning tonight — and there's a lot of them — I have full confidence they're going to vote for Hakeem Jeffries as speaker," Stanton said. Yes, but: Several progressives who spoke to Axios noted that many of the Democrats who won upset victories in deep-red districts on Tuesday ran more as rural and rust belt populists than traditional pro-Israel, pro-business centrists. As Axios reported in October , many Democrats who ran in Trump double-digit seats did so with a message that savaged their own party's leadership as much as the GOP's. An incoming member of the progressive "Bloc," asked if Democrats big margin would make it harder for the left to get their demands met, replied, "Yes, but only if leadership takes the wrong lessons from tonight." "Progressive, populist politics won overwhelmingly and came ridiculously close in places no one expected to see. This kind of margin comes with an expectation that we deliver bold changes," they added. The bottom line: Progressives are warning Jeffries that he will regret looking at Democrats' massive victory as a green light to govern in increments. "I think there's a clear mandate from voters on what sort of progressive economic agenda they want to see," said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for the left-wing Justice Democrats.
Andrew Solender ·
President Trump's Republican Party suffered an electoral humiliation Tuesday night that stretched across the battleground map and into some of the deepest-red territory in America. Why it matters: The 2026 midterms will go down as one of the most sweeping repudiations of a sitting president in modern American history, on a scale reminiscent of the post-Watergate reckoning of 1974. The big picture: Two years after Trump's comeback appeared to herald a historic political realignment , voters delivered a devastating verdict on his second presidency. Democrats seized control of both chambers of Congress, on course to gain as many as 40 House seats and at least seven Senate seats — eclipsing their wildest pre-election expectations. The wave swept deep into Republican territory, from Texas and Georgia to both Carolinas, flipping hundreds of legislative seats and delivering Democratic trifectas in the unlikeliest of states. 5 takeaways 1. Texas turns blue: After decades of dashed hopes, Democrats finally conquered the nation's most coveted Republican stronghold — in a landslide so sweeping that even three-term Gov. Greg Abbott was driven from office. Gina Hinojosa became the state's first Latina governor, while James Talarico defeated Trump-backed Ken Paxton to become the first Texas Democrat elected to the Senate since 1988. The Democratic onslaught extended across statewide offices and possibly Texas' House of Representatives, suggesting that the state's political future could be up for grabs after 32 years of GOP dominance. 2. Democrats storm Senate: What once looked like an impossibly difficult map for Democrats gave way to a historic rout, as Republicans watched their 53-seat majority crumble in states Trump carried by double digits. Democrats broke a 94-year losing streak in Kansas, ousted Republicans in Ohio , Iowa and North Carolina , and captured South Carolina for the first time since 1998. In Maine, Democrats finally toppled five-term Sen. Susan Collins after many failed attempts, putting them on course for a 54-seat majority — with Alaska and even Mississippi offering a chance to make it 55 or 56. 3. MAGA coalition collapses: The multiracial, working-class coalition that powered Trump's 2024 comeback fractured spectacularly Tuesday, raising serious questions about the long-term durability of his MAGA movement. AP's nationwide voter survey found roughly 70% of voters under 30 and 60% of Hispanic voters backed Democratic House candidates, amid widespread anger over the economy and the Iran war. In heavily Hispanic Starr County, Texas, which Trump famously flipped in 2024, Talarico led by nearly 60 points — a staggering 75-point reversal from two years prior. 4. GOP House firewall crumbles: Democrats are on course for their largest House majority since 2009, potentially winning as many as 255 seats. Casualties spanned the entire GOP conference, from MAGA firebrands to battle-tested moderates . Even seats redrawn to shield Republicans from a blue wave fell to Democrats, turning Trump's redistricting offensive into a spectacular miscalculation. With control of the House secured, Democrats wasted little time signaling what comes next. Incoming Oversight chair Robert Garcia distilled the party's appetite for investigations into two words : "Lawyer up." 5. 2028's winners and losers: Tuesday's landslide elevated a new generation of Democratic contenders and cast a shadow over Vice President Vance's presidential ambitions. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff , whose race was called 15 minutes after polls closed, immediately vaulted into the top tier of Democratic prospects. Keisha Lance Bottoms' historic victory for governor removed a key obstacle for both Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock: She could appoint a Democrat to fill their seat if either became president. Vance, Trump's presumed political heir, now faces the fallout from a deeply unpopular Iran war and the collapse of a once-in-a-generation coalition he hoped would carry him to the White House. The bottom line: For a decade, Trump has been the gravitational center of American politics. Tuesday's results suggest that era may finally be drawing to a close.
Zachary Basu ·
It was a drubbing on a scale that neither side saw coming: Democrats pummeled Republicans across the battleground map and into some of the most MAGA-friendly terrain in the country. Why it matters: The results were an emphatic rejection of Donald Trump's second term in office — and set the stage for two years of corruption investigations and legislative frustration for the lame-duck president. Here's a rundown of what you need to know about last night's historic GOP beatdown. The size of the Dem majorities It was clear early in the night that Democrats would flip the Senate. Few predicted how big their majority would end up. Democrats will have at least 54 Senate seats, and another two — in Alaska and Mississippi — were too close to call early Wednesday. The New York Times projects Democrats will win 257 seats vs. 178 for Republicans — a 79-seat majority. Those numbers could change as more races are called, but in any scenario it will be an astounding majority. The big surprises 1. Texas turns blue: After decades of dashed hopes, Democrats conquered the nation's most coveted Republican stronghold — in a landslide so sweeping that even three-term Gov. Greg Abbott was driven from office. Gina Hinojosa will be the state's first Latina governor, while James Talarico defeated Trump-backed Ken Paxton to become the first Texas Democrat elected to the Senate since 1988. The Democratic onslaught extended across statewide offices and into the legislature, suggesting that the entire state's political future could be up for grabs after 32 years of GOP dominance. 2. More red-state romps: Democrats broke a 94-year losing streak in Kansas, ousted Republicans in Ohio , Iowa and North Carolina , and captured South Carolina for the first time since 1998. 3. House district reversals. Tennessee's 4th Congressional District race hadn't been called as of the wee hours Wednesday. But the returns were stunning regardless of the outcome. Trump carried the district two years ago by 24 points, and the Democratic candidate, Victoria Broderick, spent just $90,000 on her entire campaign as of Oct. 14. There was no record of her airing a single paid ad. Yet Broderick was leading Rep. Scott DesJarlais by roughly 200 votes. Two years ago, Broderick received just 26.8% of the vote to DesJarlais' 70%. Other House race results were littered with similar red-to-blue 180s from two years ago. How the pollsters performed Democrats fretted that polls showing a blue wave were overestimating the party's strength. It turned out polls underestimated the size of the Democratic romp — in some cases by a lot. The midterm polling was "worse than you think," Lakshya Jain, a data and polling expert, wrote last night. "The polls actually missed low on Democrats more than they whiffed on Republicans in 2016. In fact, the national environment is D+13, which is four points more Democratic than the national polling average." How did the GOP redistricting play work out? Republicans tried to save their House majority with a bold wave of mid-cycle redistricting. It failed in spectacular fashion on Tuesday. Republicans not only fell short of winning seats in several districts they redrew to favor their candidates, they put some GOP incumbents in danger of losing by spreading their support thin. In Florida, Republicans are set to go 0-for-4 in redistricted seats, and in Texas they're set to narrowly win just one of the five districts they heavily redrew in their favor. The GOP also failed to dislodge Democrats in Ohio and Alabama who they drew into Republican-friendly districts. MAGA coalition collapse The multiracial , working-class coalition that powered Trump's 2024 comeback fractured spectacularly Tuesday, raising serious questions about the long-term durability of his MAGA movement. AP's nationwide voter survey found roughly 70% of voters under 30 backed Democratic House candidates, amid widespread anger over the economy and the Iran war. Hispanic voters swing back Republicans bet Trump's Latino breakthrough two years ago would create a lasting GOP realignment in Texas and beyond. Tuesday's results exposed how quickly those gains could unravel — and raised new questions about Republicans' coalition heading into 2028. The clearest examples of the Latino shift away from Trump came in Texas counties that Republicans had celebrated as evidence of their growing strength. In heavily Hispanic Starr County, Texas, which Trump famously flipped in 2024, Talarico led by nearly 60 points — a staggering 75-point reversal from two years prior. Democrats are poised to control three congressional seats in Texas' Rio Grande Valley that Trump carried in 2024 — and the margins weren't even close. The verdict on AI Voters sent a clear message on Tuesday about AI and data centers: less construction, more regulation. Hinojosa's surprise victory in the Texas governor's race fundamentally scrambles the math for the AI buildout, given the state was expected to host nearly half of new 2028 data center capacity. Democrats won all three of the states that follow Texas for new data center capacity, including Ohio, Georgia and Arizona. The winners in Ohio and Georgia favor restrictive policies, although it's not yet clear how those will take shape. 2028's winners and losers Tuesday's landslide elevated a new generation of Democratic contenders and cast a shadow over Vice President JD Vance's presidential ambitions. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff , whose race was called 15 minutes after polls closed, immediately vaulted into the top tier of Democratic prospects. Keisha Lance Bottoms' historic victory for governor removed a key obstacle for both Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock: She could appoint a Democrat to fill their seat if either became president. Vance, Trump's presumed political heir, now faces the fallout from a deeply unpopular Iran war and the collapse of a once-in-a-generation coalition. Maria Curi, Hans Nichols, Zachary Basu, Russell Contreras, Andrew Solender and Mike Zapler contributed.
Axios ·
Texas woke up red on Tuesday and went to bed blue. Why it matters: Just months ago, Democratic campaigns in the MAGA heartland appeared quixotic — obligatory more than realistic. Now those Democratic candidates have swept to power, led by two state representatives from liberal Austin — James Talarico , soon to be seated in the U.S. Senate, and Gina Hinojosa , who will take her place in the new year in the governor's mansion. Zoom in: The Democratic victories were comprehensive. State Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin) unseated three-term Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, per the Associated Press. Democrat Nathan Johnson, a state senator from Dallas, defeated Republican Mayes Middleton, state senator from Galveston, in the race for attorney general. What they're saying: "We shocked the world tonight. With a Texas chip on our shoulder, we showed the world that anything is possible tonight," Hinojosa said. "We just took back Texas," Talarico told his supporters. What happened: An unpopular president and high gas and grocery prices deep-sixed red-state GOP candidates across the country. But the Texas GOP was further hampered by an unpopular U.S. Senate candidate (even members of his own party impeached him) — Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. And Greg Abbott, who had served as governor since 2015, was unwilling to debate his gubernatorial opponent. Meanwhile, the Democrats were disciplined, with Talarico and Hinojosa staying on message about affordability even as their Republican opponents tried to make the race about social issues. Follow the money: Republicans went down despite a rescue mission from Elon Musk, who gave north of $150 million in support of Paxton's campaign in a single quarter this year — and gave at least $5.5 million to Abbott's campaign this cycle. The big picture: The Democratic wins have huge implications for the 2028 presidential race. Democrats have proven, after years of flailing, that they could win statewide in Texas, potentially putting the Lone Star State and its 40 electoral votes in play. Political pundits will be wondering: Was this a one-off wave amid a terrible midterm climate for Texas Republicans — or a sign of foundational change? The bottom line: Fireworks were shooting off in Austin last night, and state agencies so long occupied by the GOP will now be run by Democrats, opening the way for wide policy changes in long-conservative Texas.
Asher Price ·
Republicans tried to save their House majority with a bold wave of mid-cycle redistricting. It failed in spectacular fashion on Tuesday. Why it matters: Republicans not only fell short of winning seats in several districts they redrew to favor their candidates, they put some GOP incumbents in danger of losing by spreading their support thin. Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.), who has mostly won landslide reelections since entering Congress in 2010, trailed his Democratic opponent by 200 votes, according to the Tennessee secretary of state's unofficial final results . Republican state legislators carved up his district in an effort to shore up neighboring Republicans, making his district nearly 20 percentage points less GOP-leaning. State of play: While Republicans succeeded in picking up a Democratic district in Tennessee to make up for that loss, they largely failed to pick up the seats they tried to make reliably Republican in other states. Florida: Republicans are set to go 0-for-4 in redistricted seats, failing to unseat Democratic Reps. Darren Soto, Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz, or capture a new seat that Democrat Pia Dandiya won. Texas: Republicans are set to narrowly win just one of the five districts they redrew heavily in their favor, with Democrats easily hanging onto several Rio Grande Valley and San Antonio-area seats. Ohio: Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman and Marcy Kaptur held on despite Republicans drawing them into more hostile territory. Alabama: Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures is also set for a comfortable win in a district Republicans had planned to fall into their hands. Louisiana: The district of retiring Democrat Rep. Cleo Fields, which Republicans made significantly more GOP-leaning will go to a December runoff between Democrat Patricia Moore and Republican Gabe Firment. One of the most stunning results of the night was Democrats' multiple apparent victories in North Carolina, where House candidates were boosted by Sen-elect Roy Cooper's strong performance at the top of the ballot. Democrats are on track to flip several seats that were rated as likely or even solidly Republican by Cook Political Report, likely unseating Republican Reps. Addison McDowell, Brad Knott and Tim Moore. They are also likely to unseat Rep. Richard Hudson, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Virginia Foxx, who chairs the House Rules Committee, is behind by about 100 votes. In all, the state's House delegation could go from a 10-4 Republican majority to a 9-5 Democratic one. Between the lines: The North Carolina result is the product of a brutal 2024 gerrymander in which GOP state legislators diluted most solidly Republican districts to draw out several House Democrats. They redistricted again last year, only to put Democratic Rep. Don Davis in more hostile territory. GOP Rep. Greg Murphy — whose district was packed with more Democratic voters to make Davis' seat redder — barely hung on Tuesday night. Former Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning, who was one of the Democrats drawn out in 2024, told Axios that Tuesday's result was "absolutely" a result of GOP redistricting backfiring. The bottom line: Republicans "tried to break the laws and go against these norms in your massive authoritarian power grab," DNC vice chair Shasti Conrad told Axios. "How did that turn out?"
Andrew Solender, Holly Otterbein, Hans Nichols ·
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's closely watched U.S. Senate race, the Associated Press projected. He will become the nation's first Muslim senator. Why it matters: El-Sayed's win shows how an unapologetically progressive candidate can win in a battleground state President Trump carried just two years ago. The two candidates competed for the seat vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, with Republicans hoping to flip a seat Democrats have held for decades. But the GOP failed in its endeavor — and already lost its Senate majority. The race took a stunning turn in its final days, when Democratic U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost the August primary to El-Sayed, endorsed Rogers . The move sparked furious backlash from Democrats and prompted several of Stevens' staffers, including her chief of staff, to resign. The big picture: El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director, ran on a progressive platform centered on Medicare for All, taxing billionaires and reducing corporate influence in politics. His victory comes after a contentious Democratic primary and a bitter general election campaign that featured personal attacks over his background, medical credentials and Muslim faith. Rogers, a former congressman and FBI agent who narrowly lost a 2024 Senate bid, sought to portray El-Sayed as too extreme for Michigan . El-Sayed cast Rogers as a Washington insider aligned with Trump. Trump himself escalated the attacks in the final stretch of the race, questioning El-Sayed's loyalty to the U.S. and making unsubstantiated allegations of extremist ties. El-Sayed rejected the accusations. Between the lines: El-Sayed's win offers progressives a powerful new argument in the Democratic Party's debate over how to win back voters. Zoom out: Both candidates put affordability at the center of their campaigns but offered sharply different solutions. El-Sayed called for universal health care, tackling medical debt and higher taxes on billionaire wealth. Rogers emphasized tax cuts, expanding domestic manufacturing and more transparent health care prices. He also campaigned on stronger border security and immigration enforcement. What's next: El-Sayed will arrive in Washington with an ambitious progressive agenda — but turning campaign promises into legislation will be a different challenge. His signature Medicare for All proposal faces steep political obstacles, even with Democrats winning control of the Senate. His victory also gives progressives a new national figure as Democrats begin looking toward the 2028 presidential election.
Joe Guillen ·
In red states and blue, Republicans suffered losses on a scale even Democrats would never have dared to dream about 24 hours ago. Why it matters: Democrats worried that polls showing a blue wave were overestimating the party's strength. It turned out polls underestimated the size of the Democratic romp — by a lot. The margins Democrats racked up in red states were stunning: Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff won reelection by nearly 18 percentage points. North Carolina: Former Gov. Roy Cooper won his Senate race by roughly 19 points. Texas: State Rep. James Talarico cruised to victory by approximately 12 points. These weren't nail-biters in competitive states. They were landslides in states President Trump carried just two years ago. 1. The Texas trifecta Democrats won the Texas House, Senate and governor's mansion, giving the party unified control of state government for the first time since 1995. The sweep came alongside Talarico's double-digit victory in the U.S. Senate race. Texas, long the GOP's biggest electoral stronghold, delivered Democrats victories up and down the ballot. 2. North Carolina was a bloodbath The man in charge of steering House Republicans to victory — Rep. Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee — lost his own seat. He'll join the ranks of other defeated party leaders — Speaker Tom Foley in 1994 and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 — who spent so much time trying to build a majority that they failed to protect themselves. The carnage extended across the state. North Carolina's congressional delegation could shift from 10 Republicans and four Democrats to five Republicans and nine Democrats. 3. The ridiculously cheap wins Democrats are leading in districts that received little or no outside spending from the DCCC or House Majority PAC, the party's main House super PAC, according to AdImpact. In North Carolina's 6th, 9th and 13th districts, Missouri's 2nd and Tennessee's 4th, Democratic candidates are on track to win despite receiving little financial support from national Democratic groups. North Carolina's 6th: Democrat Cyril Jefferson didn't spend a dime on advertising, according to AdImpact. Tennessee's 4th: Democrat Victoria Broderick spent just $90,000 on her entire campaign as of Oct. 14, according to her FEC filing. AdImpact has no record of any paid TV advertising. 4. Hispanic voters swung back in South Texas Democrats are poised to control three congressional seats in the Rio Grande Valley that President Trump carried in 2024 — and the margins weren't even close. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) was leading Republican Tano Tijerina, 66% to 30%. Democrat Bobby Pulido was leading Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, 62% to 38%. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) was leading Republican Eric Flores, 56% to 40%. The results were a dramatic reversal in a region where Republicans had made significant gains with Hispanic voters during the Trump era. 5. Democrats won deep in Trump country Democrats didn't just flip swing districts — they broke through in some of the reddest corners of the House map. In Tennessee's 4th Congressional District, which Trump carried by 24 points, Broderick was leading Rep. Scott DesJarlais by roughly 200 votes. Two years ago, Broderick received just 26.8% of the vote to DesJarlais' 70%. The bottom line: The wave didn't discriminate. It washed away good candidates and bad, senators, governors and seasoned Republicans alike.
Hans Nichols ·
Latino voters helped Democrats break Republicans' decades-long grip on Texas and reclaim both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, casting doubt on President Trump's historic 2024 gains with the fast-growing electorate. Why it matters: Republicans bet Trump's Latino breakthrough two years ago would create a lasting GOP realignment in Texas and beyond. Tuesday's results exposed how quickly those gains could unravel — and raised new questions about Republicans' coalition heading into 2028. Early results show Hispanic voters' shift aided Democrats in capturing a Senate seat and the governorship in Texas for the first time in a generation. Tuesday's results — particularly in South Texas border counties — reflected some of the anger among Hispanics over high prices and the Trump administration's immigration enforcement. "This is what happens when you mess with the Latino community. We are sending a clear message," said Hector Sanchez Barba, president and CEO of the voting group Mi Familia Vota. By the numbers: Early NBC News exit poll results showed Latino voters moving away from Republicans. Democrats' 16-point advantage in Latino party identification grew from 10 points in 2024, according to NBC's polling. Some 43% of Latino voters identified as Democrats, up from 39% in 2024. Republican identification slipped from 29% to 27%. In the early NBC exit poll, 75% of voters nationally described the economy as struggling, while 65% said Trump's policies had made economic conditions worse. State of play: Democrats reclaimed the House and Senate while ending Republicans' statewide winning streak in Texas dating to 1994. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico defeated Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton , winning a Senate seat Democrats last captured in 1988. Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa ousted Republican Gov. Greg Abbott , becoming Texas' first elected Latina governor. Early returns also suggested Latino voters helped Democrats win crucial House contests in Colorado and Georgia. Comedian Cristela Alonzo attends an election night watch party for Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa at Assembly Hall in Austin, Texas. Photo: Joel Angel Juarez/Getty Images What they're saying: "You know how Tim Russert would always say 'Florida, Florida, Florida?' For the last two cycles, I kept saying Texas, Texas, Texas. That's how I feel right now," Voto Latino CEO Maria Teresa Kumar told Axios. Kumar said the Democrats' historic Texas wins changes 2028 and will transform how presidential candidates talk to Latino voters and see Texas as purple. "There was this notion that we're a sleeping giant. Now, we're jumping up and down and waving our fist above the head," Janet Murguía, president and CEO of the Latino civil rights group UnidosUS told Axios. Zoom in: The clearest tests of the Latino shift came in Texas counties that Republicans had celebrated as evidence of their growing strength. Cameron County, which includes Brownsville and South Padre Island: Talarico led by 38 points in early, unofficial returns. Trump won by 6 points there in 2024. Hidalgo County, another majority-Latino border county: Talarico led by 47 points. Trump won it two years ago by 3 points. Webb County, home to Laredo: Talarico led by 49 points; it was Trump +2 in 2024. Context: Trump's 2024 success shattered longstanding assumptions about Latino voters. A Pew Research Center analysis found Trump won 48% of Latino voters in 2024, compared with 36% in 2020. An August Axios-reported poll of 17 competitive House districts foreshadowed the reversal, showing Democrats leading 58%–35% among Latino registered voters. Supporters react during a midterm election night watch party for Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico at the Long Center in Austin, Texas. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Image Reality check: A Democratic rebound doesn't mean Latino voters have returned to their old political loyalties. Democrats' 16-point advantage in Latino party identification remains far below their 33-point advantage in 2018, according to NBC. Republicans may have mistaken Trump's appeal for lasting GOP loyalty. Democrats risk confusing a backlash against Trump with renewed allegiance to their party. A September Axios analysis found 62% of Latino registered voters in 17 battleground districts trusted Democrats more to lower prices, compared with 36% who trusted Republicans. Economic frustration gave Democrats an opening without guaranteeing lasting support. The bottom line: Trump's Latino breakthrough reshaped politics in 2024. Two years later, those voters reminded both parties that winning their support once doesn't mean keeping it.
Russell Contreras ·
Elon Musk cracked jokes early Wednesday morning after the Republican candidates he spent record sums supporting got drubbed in a historic midterm election. Why it matters: No one has ever spent as much as Musk for so little payoff — especially in Texas , which ended up with a massive blue wave. He spent an estimated $445 million in this cycle, making him the largest individual donor in modern history. What they're saying: " Guess my election-interfering space lasers didn't work this time 🤷♂️," Musk posted to X just before 1:15am ET. The intrigue: Musk also nodded at the results in the Texas governor's race, where anti-data center Democrat Gina Hinojosa won a shock victory . "Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now," he wrote . What to watch: It's not clear how the massive power shift in Texas will affect Musk's ambitions for his companies in the state — or how the loss will impact his appetite for more spending in 2028.
Ben Berkowitz ·