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Axios
Axios (website)
Axios is an American news website based in Arlington, Virginia. It was founded in 2016 and launched the following year by former Politico journalists Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, and Roy Schwartz. The site's name is based on the Ancient Greek ἄξιος.
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Senate Republicans' worst nightmare came true Tuesday night, as they watched red state after red state fall to a historic Democratic wave . Why it matters: It's hard to remember now, but Republicans started off the 2026 cycle thinking they could expand their majority. They ended the night with what one source called a "huge f**king thumping" — losing or trailing in every toss-up on the map. At the start of the cycle, top operatives saw a red wall of incumbents in Trump-friendly states, an invincible Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and a vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia, who provided a path to expanding a majority. By 9pm Tuesday night, top GOP sources were quietly accepting the reality of the return of Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). "Republicans are going to wake up in a different country tomorrow and we are going to have to start from square one to reinvent a party," one senior GOP Senate aide told Axios on Tuesday evening. Between the lines: For the first time since 1972, Republicans lost a Senate seat in the home state of the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The defeat of Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) came despite Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) leading the NRSC. Republicans also lost in the home state of the next expected NRSC chair, Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio). Zoom in: North Carolina and Georgia were expected to be the premiere races of the cycle not too long ago. Both were called for Democrats before 8:30pm EST. That was just the beginning of the nightmare. In Texas, Elon Musk's more than $150 million infusion wasn't enough to save Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton after Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a nasty primary. In Ohio, Sen. Jon Husted's (R-Ohio) campaign had a rocky start — and wasn't bailed out by President Trump's publicity campaign about his rear end. Alaska started looking shaky even before a second Dan Sullivan joined the ballot, and Iowa wasn't a given either. In Kansas, alarm bells started ringing over an unprepared Sen. Roger Marshall. In South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham died, and before Republican leaders could blink, Trump crowned Graham's sister, Darline, who had no political experience. And in Maine, Republicans held out hope that Susan Collins could pull out another miracle. A hope that quickly faded as results began to roll in. What we're hearing: "Absolutely brutal night," another senior GOP aide told us. "But also predictable. Signs were there for months. Biggest fear is that the party lacks the introspection, takes away wrong lessons, and doubles down on the policies and behavior that got us into this mess in first place." "Sometimes there are environmental challenges that even the strongest, best-resourced candidate can't overcome. We're seeing those challenges play out in real time tonight," said a third senior GOP aide. Yet another top operative conspicuously shared charts of Trump's dismal approval ratings. The bottom line: Democrats won Senate seats on Tuesday night for the first time in Texas since 1988, in Kansas since 1932 and South Carolina since 1998.
Stef W. Kight ·
President Trump said Republicans would have won Tuesday's midterm elections had he been on the ballot. Why it matters: After raging on social media before major races were called, Trump reacted to the results for the first time Tuesday night as a blue wave began to take shape. What they're saying: "I wasn't on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter," he wrote in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday night. In a separate post, he said he was "going to become a Political Pundit, both good and bad, on the reasons these Candidates won and lost!" State of play: Democrats have flipped several Republican-held Senate seats, with wins by James Talarico in Texas, Annie Andrews in South Carolina, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina. The victories bring Democrats closer to reclaiming control of the chamber, provided they hold their existing seats. Democrats have also made major gains in the House, flipping six Republican-held seats in key battleground races and moving closer to a majority, per AP. Democrats have even flipped the governorships in Georgia , Texas and Iowa. What we're watching: Trump also told the New York Times he is "absolutely willing to accept" the results. "We'll work with the Democrats, and we'll, you know, look forward to working with them," he said. "We'll probably work something out." Trump also told Politico he spoke with Democratic leaders around 11pm ET and is eager to strike deals with them rather than spend his final two years in office vetoing legislation. About an hour later, Trump posted a hat with the word "veto" on it. Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout.
Josephine Walker ·
SHREVEPORT, La. — The GOP's election-night defeat has unleashed a wave of finger-pointing inside the House Republican conference, with members questioning whether Speaker Mike Johnson or any of the other top deputies can survive next week's leadership elections. Why it matters: Johnson spent months insisting Republicans would defy the odds and keep the House. But after losing the majority, he cast the defeat as all but inevitable, an explanation unlikely to satisfy Republicans ready for a new leadership slate. One House Republican told Axios that every member of GOP leadership will face a challenger because of the election results. Another said the losses have created a major opening for Republicans looking to challenge the current leadership team. A third said they no longer see a path for Johnson to remain atop the conference. Driving the news: At Johnson's election-night watch party in his hometown of Shreveport, the mood grew increasingly somber as it became clear Democrats would secure the House majority. Johnson remained offstage until just before 11pm Eastern time, even after networks projected Democrats would win control of the chamber. In a soundtrack to the GOP's election-night defeat, "White on the Ground" by the Kruse Brothers played over the speakers to a subdued crowd just before Johnson took the stage. "It's only happened twice in 90 years that a sitting president has picked up or held seats for his party in that first two-year cycle," Johnson told supporters Tuesday night. "It's very, very difficult to overcome, and it looks like history will be kept here tonight." Behind the scenes: House Republicans were already privately unloading on their leaders Tuesday night, with some arguing the scale of the party's losses demands a change at the top. "I think Iran, ICE, inflation, fuel prices, lack of focus on pocketbook issues all played a part of this," one member told Axios. Asked for a vibe check, one member simply texted Axios: "Brutal." The scale of the losses was underscored by the defeat of NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) — the man tasked with preserving the Republican majority who couldn't hold onto his own seat. Zoom in: Johnson spent months crisscrossing the country in a last-ditch effort to save Republicans' fragile majority, traveling to more than 40 congressional districts across 22 states. Johnson publicly insisted in October that he intended to remain the top House Republican even if his party lost the majority, but he has yet to formally declare any plans to run for minority leader. Trump praised Johnson in an interview with Politico on Tuesday, but stopped short of endorsing him for the job. "He's going to have to make that decision," Trump said of Johnson. What we're watching: House Republicans are scheduled to hold leadership elections Nov. 10, with candidates required to declare by Nov. 6. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) are also being floated as potential contenders.
Kate Santaliz ·
Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek defeated Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson in a major upset Tuesday, becoming the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Iowa since 2008, the AP projected and sealing Democratic control of the chamber. Why it matters: Turek's victory delivers Democrats control of the Senate — and signals a political backlash against Republicans in a state Trump won comfortably just two years ago. The big picture: Turek's victory breaks the GOP's hold on both of Iowa's Senate seats for the first time since Democrat Tom Harkin left office in 2015, marking a major breakthrough for Democrats in a state that has shifted right. State of play: The Cook Political Report rated the race a toss-up after moving it left during the campaign as mounting frustration over rising costs, Trump's tariffs and the Iran war put Republicans on the defensive. Zoom in: Turek, a Council Bluffs state lawmaker and Paralympic medalist, built his campaign around affordability and appeals to working-class and independent voters. He criticized Trump's tariffs and other administration policies that he argued were hurting Iowa farmers and families. He also made government ethics and corruption a central theme, including support for a ban on congressional stock trading. Between the lines: Republicans had held both of Iowa's U.S. Senate seats since Harkin retired, while GOP candidates have increasingly dominated statewide races. The bottom line: Turek's win offers Democrats a potential roadmap for competing in increasingly Republican states — and raises questions about the GOP's political strength heading into 2028.
Jason Clayworth ·
Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in Texas' closely watched U.S. Senate race, delivering a historic breakthrough for Democrats in a state Republicans have dominated for decades. Why it matters: Talarico's victory ends the nation's longest Democratic drought in statewide elections and flips a critical Senate seat as Democrats fight for control of the chamber. The Austin-area state representative becomes the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. His win also marks the first Democratic victory in a Texas statewide election since 1994, a stunning reversal in a state President Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024. The big picture: The race became the nation's most expensive Senate battle after Texas Attorney General Paxton defeated longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, with massive spending from both parties . Republican leaders had warned that Paxton's nomination could jeopardize the seat, and the party poured enormous resources into defending it. On the campaign trail: Talarico, a former public school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, built his campaign around affordability, public education and criticism of wealthy donors' influence over politics. Paxton, a three-term Texas attorney general and close ally of President Trump , emphasized immigration enforcement and conservative policies. Between the lines: Paxton's candidacy exposed divisions within the Texas GOP, with party leaders initially warning that nominating the attorney general could endanger a seat Republicans had held for decades. Paxton defeated Cornyn in the May Republican primary runoff after securing Trump's endorsement, setting up the costly general election battle. His campaign was also shadowed by years of legal and ethical controversies, including his 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House. The state Senate later acquitted him. The backdrop: Democrats have spent decades trying to turn Texas blue, with former Rep. Beto O'Rourke coming within roughly 220,000 votes of unseating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. Talarico's win marks a breakthrough for a party that has repeatedly fallen short in statewide contests, even as Texas' population and political landscape have changed. What's next: Talarico will take office in January.
Nicole Cobler ·
For the first time in history, three Black women will serve simultaneously in the U.S. Senate when Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton takes office in January. Why it matters: It took over 235 years for two Black women to serve in the U.S. Senate at the same time. Two years later, that number will grow to three. Driving the news: Stratton won election to the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, defeating Republican Don Tracy, per AP. She'll join Sens. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Delaware) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Maryland), who were both elected in 2024 and became the first two Black women to serve simultaneously in 2025. The Stratton campaign did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment. By the numbers: Stratton will become the sixth Black woman to serve in the U.S. Senate and the second from Illinois, where Carol Moseley Braun became the first Black woman ever elected to the chamber in 1992. Former Vice President Kamala Harris became the second Black woman elected to the Senate in 2016. Former Sen. Laphonza Butler became the third to serve when California Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed her in 2023, but she was never elected. The bottom line : Stratton and Sen. Tammy Duckworth will make Illinois the first state represented by two women of color in the Senate simultaneously. Go deeper: Juliana Stratton wins Illinois U.S. Senate race, making history
Josephine Walker ·
President Trump lashed out at Fox News on Election Night, attacking the network's personalities, polling and coverage as voters awaited midterm election results. Why it matters: Trump, who has repeatedly dined with Fox News patriarch Rupert Murdoch and hired talent from the network, has come to expect favorable coverage. But Fox's editorial decisions this election cycle suggest it isn't always willing to oblige. Driving the news: Trump began the night by criticizing Jessica Tarlov, a Fox co-host and Democratic strategist, saying he'd "go somewhere else" until she was off the air. He went as far as to reportedly text her co-host, Greg Gutfeld, to complain. His ire then turned toward Fox's political polling , claiming that "[e]very question is a hit job, and every answer is 'BULLSHIT!'" Around half an hour later, he posted that Fox's ratings were down "because they're spending too much time covering the Trump Deranged Dumocrats!" Trump pointed to a "new CNN Poll" as an alternative, touting data demonstrating his strength among MAGA Republicans. But the two CNN polling segments he posted earlier in the night were both well over a month old. State of play : Trump's rocky relationship with Fox News has been a source of tension this election season and in previous elections. Fox's coverage of Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed has fueled tensions for months, Axios' Alex Isenstadt recently reported . Republicans reportedly worried that Fox was undercutting efforts to brand El-Sayed as far outside the mainstream. In late October, Trump posted that Fox was "spending far too much time putting on the OPPONENTS of Republican Party Candidates, people that love our Country, and have Great Policies and Ideas." He added, "That's the only reason this Race is close, if it is indeed close." The White House and Fox did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment. Meanwhile, Trump's former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, now a Fox pundit, appeared on the network's Election Night coverage and said she had just spoken with the president. Reality check: Murdoch, while he is a conservative, has always been passionate about the news business. Fox News did, after all, spark Trumpworld's ire by calling Arizona early for former President Biden in 2020. Zoom in: Fox News' business imperative means focusing on long-term credibility over short-term access and ratings — which took a downward turn last month in the lead-up to the election. The ratings decline could suggest some Republican viewers tuned out as pre-election polls pointed to possible Democratic gains . But for Trump, who has tried to make it a referendum on his popularity, it's personal. Go deeper: Key election night polls close as Trump rages
Avery Lotz, Sara Fischer ·
Democrat Roy Cooper has defeated President Trump's handpicked candidate, Michael Whatley, flipping one of North Carolina's two GOP-held U.S. Senate seats. Why it matters : Cooper, the popular two-term governor, delivered Democrats one of their best shots at flipping a Republican-held Senate seat. Even in a state that voted all three times for Trump, Cooper has never lost an election. The big picture: While the race was originally expected to be tight and expensive, Cooper consistently widened his polling lead throughout campaign season. His name recognition boosted his chances against Whatley, a lawyer who served as Republican National Committee chair but had never run for office himself. As enthusiasm lagged behind Whatley, GOP-aligned super PACs canceled their ads and redirected spending to more promising states, even as Trump still campaigned for Whatley in North Carolina. Catch up quick: Cooper will succeed Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, who decided not to seek reelection after clashing with Trump over the "big, beautiful bill" and its associated Medicaid cuts. Trump had threatened to back a primary challenger against Tillis. On the trail: Cooper focused his campaign on affordability, blaming Republicans for high gas prices and tying GOP policies to inflation. Meanwhile, Whatley centered his platform on helping execute the Trump agenda, despite the president's historically low approval rating. Whatley attempted to paint Cooper as the "soft-on-crime candidate" and continued to recite a debunked claim that Cooper is responsible for freeing Decarlos Brown Jr. , the man accused of stabbing and killing a 23-year-old Ukrainian refugee on Charlotte's light rail. Trump alleged North Carolina had become "one of the most violent" states under Democratic leadership while campaigning for Whatley. What's next: Cooper will take office in January. He will be the first Democrat to represent North Carolina in the Senate in over a decade.
Alexandria Sands ·
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas defeated former GOP Sen. John Sununu in the New Hampshire Senate race, AP projects, becoming the first openly gay man elected to the U.S. Senate. Why it matters: Pappas' victory keeps the seat in Democratic hands and could boost the party's chances of taking control of the Senate. Driving the news: Pappas led Sununu 61% to 38% with 20% of the votes counted. He'll succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) in January. Catch up quick: Republicans saw New Hampshire as a top pickup opportunity, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune campaigning for Sununu in the competitive race, despite polls showing Pappas ahead. Most polls compiled by the New York Times in the weeks before Election Day showed the Democratic Pappas leading Sununu by 5 to 8 percentage points. Zoom in: Although President Trump endorsed him, Sununu has shown daylight with the president, criticizing his trade war with Canada and his so-called anti-weaponization fund — and he backed Trump's primary opponents in 2016 and 2024. Still, prominent New Hampshire Republicans — including Don Bolduc , the Trump -endorsed 2022 Senate nominee — endorsed Pappas in mid-October, accusing Sununu of being too beholden to the president. Between the lines: Republicans welcomed Sununu's entry into the race because of his family's long ties to New Hampshire politics. Sununu served in the Senate from 2003 to 2009 before losing to Shaheen in 2008. His brother Chris served as governor for eight years. Senate GOP Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) posted on X in October 2025 that Sununu's decision to run catapulted New Hampshire to "a top-tier U.S. Senate race." The bottom line: Pappas' win reflects a preference New Hampshire voters expressed in pre-election polling : They wanted a check on Trump's power. Go deeper: Trump's former Senate pick backs Democrat in New Hampshire Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.
Josephine Walker, Avery Lotz ·
Top party strategists may hate seeing one of their candidates gutted by a brutal ad. But they can still admire the hit. Why it matters: A record $11.6 billion has plastered political ads across screens of every size in the country during the 2026 midterms . Only a handful of those earned the grudging respect of operatives on both sides. 📺 Zoom in: Multiple Republican strategists singled out the "brutal" series of ads attacking Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kans.) over lawsuits against patients with overdue medical bills — some of whom were later arrested . Against the advice of his own team, Marshall released a self-directed ad answering the attacks. In Nebraska , an ad highlighting a past vote by former Gov. Pete Ricketts to pardon a man convicted of rape was singled out by both parties as one of the cycle's most damaging. Ricketts is expected to win re-election to the Senate. In Maine, an upbeat jingle hit Democratic nominee Troy Jackson for having children with his second cousin. "If he'll f**k his own family, he'll f**k yours too," the radio ad said (among other things). Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) called for the ad to be taken down. And in Florida , Rep. María Salazar (R-Fla.) turned on her own party leader, criticizing President Trump over ICE's aggressive enforcement tactics, saying some immigration policies had "gone too far." The intrigue : Even hardened operatives are dealing with a new frontier: AI-generated attack ads that can make up scenarios and put words in an opponent's mouth. In Michigan , a Republican-aligned super PAC used AI-generated imagery to depict Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed in a fabricated family photo and playing a game with cards referencing "Death to America" and 9/11. In Texas, GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton's team used AI to depict Democratic candidate James Talarico defacing a Bible with a crayon and saying: "In the beginning God was non-binary, and he wasn't a Christian. And God said, 'let there be six genders,' and there were." 🤺 Between the lines: An attack ad helped spark this weekend's blowup in the Michigan Senate race. Rep. Haley Stevens' (D-Mich.) shocking decision to withdraw support from El-Sayed grew out of their public dispute over an ad she called antisemitic. El-Sayed ultimately disavowed the ad but said Stevens wasn't welcome at his events, and she endorsed former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) on Sunday. The other side: It's hard to imagine a bigger backfire than Vivek Ramaswamy's (R) ad featuring the estranged mother of his opponent for Ohio governor, Amy Acton (D). It could prove fatal for his gubernatorial bid, and Republicans worry it could hurt Sen. John Husted's (R) re-election chances too. The ad sparked immediate bipartisan backlash. Ramaswamy doubled down before pulling it off-air. One internal GOP poll had Acton's lead grow by 6 points after the ad ran.
Stef W. Kight ·
Voters in Minneapolis and Houston are among those leaving "I Voted" stickers at memorials for people killed by federal immigration agents. Why it matters: The tributes highlight how the Trump administration's unpopular immigration crackdown is motivating voters this election cycle. Zoom in: In Minneapolis , people are placing stickers on memorials for Alex Pretti , an ICU nurse, and Renee Good , a writer and mother, who were killed by federal agents in January. In Houston , voters have covered a memorial for Lorenzo Salgado Araujo , a construction worker and father who was fatally shot by ICE agents in July, with stickers and handwritten messages like "I voted for you" and "Por usted" — "for you" in Spanish. A voter places an "I Voted" sticker on a memorial for Lorenzo Salgado Araujo. Photo: Mark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images Ronaldo Salgado, Araujo's oldest son, placed his sticker on his father's memorial in the first week of early voting and hundreds followed him, the Houston Chronicle reports . "I am beyond touched that this community and that the entire city is voting with my dad in mind ... I didn't realize it would grow this big," he told the Washington Post. The big picture: These midterms are testing whether President Trump's 2024 gains with Latino voters have lasted. National polls in the lead-up to Election Day showed Latino voters swinging back toward Democrats , with immigration as a key area of disagreement with the administration. In an October NBC News/Telemundo poll , 67% of Latino voters said Trump's enforcement has gone too far, 31% said they or someone close now carries ID because of ICE concerns, and 27% know someone detained or deported. More from Axios: Voting machine chaos hits key House battleground Inside the White House's Election Day messaging strategy Democrats could learn wrong message from a blowout victory
Erica Pandey ·
Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens has requested U.S. marshals' protection after the Democrat told authorities she had received death threats for endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the swing state's hotly contested Senate race, two senior Trump administration officials tell Axios. Why it matters: Stevens' surprise decision Sunday to switch her endorsement to Rogers over Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed was the biggest political story of the midterm campaign's final days. Stevens — who lost to El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate primary — was widely criticized by Democrats after siding with Rogers, and her top staff members resigned. "She has received death threats and reached out to the Marshals Service," one of the officials said. "There's a process to go through but she's a member of Congress and we expect her request will be fulfilled." Zoom in: Stevens' support for Israel and his criticism of the Jewish state was a major dividing line in their primary campaign. Stevens objected to El-Sayed's ties to controversial progressive streamer Hasan Piker and an ad by a PAC tied to Piker's uncle, Cenk Uygur, blaming Israel for rising grocery prices. El-Sayed disavowed the ad, but Stevens said she believed he hadn't done enough to address her concerns and didn't want her help on the campaign trail. The dispute came to a head when she was told she was no longer welcome at El-Sayed's campaign events. Stevens announced her endorsement of Rogers after appearing with him at a church service on Sunday. Stevens could not be reached for comment Tuesday. The big picture: The political environment in Michigan has been volatile this weekend. On Monday, the New York Post reported a former El-Sayed staffer was one of several anti-Zionist activists federally indicted for allegedly terrorizing members of Michigan's Jewish community. On Sunday, a conservative Jewish activist was attacked by a progressive activist at a University of Michigan event where organizers were criticizing Islam. On Friday, U.S. officials announced the arrest of a Michigan man for allegedly threatening FBI director Kash Patel. Stevens recently clashed with an anti-Zionist activist whom she accused of trying to intimidate her over her support for Israel.
Alex Isenstadt, Marc Caputo ·
Voting is underway across the country Tuesday in a midterm election that could decide whether President Trump gets two more years of unified Republican rule — or faces a potential Democratic check on his power. Why it matters: The results will be the clearest national test of Trump's second presidency , following war abroad, economic anxiety at home and sweeping changes in Washington. Trump, facing all these challenges, has made himself the face of the Republican campaign for control. State of play: As voters head to the polls, the Trump administration is zeroing-in on the Alaska Senate race. The Department of Justice has sent more than a dozen target letters as part of its investigation into the Dan J. Sullivan campaign, which has been the subject of Trump's ire for several days. It's an escalation into the Trump administration's push for answers in the race where Democrats reportedly conducted an organized effort to recruit another "Dan Sullivan" to join Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) on the ballot. The Justice Department's move comes as the White House is circulating Election Day talking points across the administration, touting Trump's accomplishments as the GOP braces for a tough evening that could see them lose both the House and the Senate, according to some forecasters. Trump has been a massive force on the campaign trail, rallying in several states for his Republican picks. The president has claimed to voters that he is on the ballot this year, making the election about his policies and actions — despite his dismal polling ratings, plagued by the Iran war and economic anxiety. Trump spent the morning of Election Day criticizing Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and the Daily Mail in various social media posts. Zoom in: Voting machine glitches and hiccups popped up in various spots of the country Tuesday, including in the high-profile New York House race between Rep. Mike Lawler (R) and Democratic nominee Cait Conley. Otherwise the temperature was rather low despite the power of Washington hanging in the balance. The big picture: Republicans have largely given Trump a free hand in Washington since his return to the White House. Democratic control of even one chamber of Congress would open the door to investigations, subpoenas and even more legislative gridlock. Voters are weighing the Iran war and rising energy costs , broader affordability concerns, and intensifying debate over AI's economic impact, among other issues. An unprecedented mobilization of election monitors and legal battles involving the Trump administration have raised concerns about potential disruptions and challenges to the results. Trump has said he'll respect the election results if "they're honest elections." What's at stake: Republicans enter Election Day defending narrow congressional majorities, with a number of battlegrounds and traditionally GOP districts and states shifting into toss-up territory during the campaigns' final weeks. The House: All 435 seats are on the ballot. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reclaim the majority. Redistricting has reshaped the battlefield. The Senate: 35 seats are on the ballot. Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage, including two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Some scenarios: Democrats flip the House: They gain greater investigative power, control of committees and leverage over spending — but Trump retains his veto and executive authority. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) could become the first Black speaker of the House, or face an opponent from his left. Democrats take Congress: Democrats' oversight power expands, while Trump's agenda faces major obstacles. A third Trump impeachment could be on the table, although being convicted in a Senate trial would require a two-thirds vote. Republicans retain Congress: Trump and GOP leaders get another two years to advance his agenda, though narrow margins could complicate plans. Between the lines: Beyond control of Congress, the results will test whether Trump's gains among young, Black and Latino voters in 2024 have endured — or if those voters are moving back toward Democrats who are trying to rebuild a winning coalition for 2028. What we're watching: Whether close races, outstanding ballots and legal challenges delay a clear verdict.
Herb Scribner ·
North Korea appears to have used a fake job interview as part of its months-long preparations to steal $6.3 billion from Binance, the crypto exchange said Tuesday. Why it matters : The country's hackers are weaponizing both sides of the job market , posing as recruiters and job applicants to infiltrate companies and steal billions. Driving the news : Binance said one of its software engineers was contacted in September through a "legitimate job-hunting platform" by someone posing as a project director at a fictitious company. During the first-round interview, a fake HR representative conducted a live video call with the engineer and showed off a seemingly legitimate social media profile featuring personal photos and videos. The hackers waited until the second round — after building trust with the employee — to ask them to download an infected code repository as part of an interview assignment. Separately, another software engineer also downloaded a "tampered Homebrew installation" in June to install a popular AI coding tool onto their device. Binance's security team detected the installation and replaced the device, as well as rotated all credentials, but the engineer and colleagues were all exposed to the hacker. The intrigue: The fake interview was just one of several suspected North Korean attempts to compromise Binance employees. So far in 2026, Binance said it has detected and prevented 57 suspected North Korea-linked cyber incidents, including attempts involving fake job interviews and compromised software packages. Between the lines: North Korean hackers have spent years exploiting both sides of the hiring process. As job applicants, North Korean operatives pose as legitimate IT workers to land high-paying jobs at American companies. Those salaries are then funneled back to Pyongyang. Operatives are also increasingly posing as recruiters and prospective employees to lure in people who work at cryptocurrency firms in the hopes of tricking them into downloading malware. Data from Pindrop Security shows that IT worker fraud has been rampant in 2026: Last year, North Korean job applicants made up 1 in every 343 applications. This year, across Pindrop's customer base, those applicants now make up 1 in 47. The big picture: North Korea has found an opening in a difficult job market, where companies are eager to find qualified workers and job seekers are anxious for their next opportunity. Hiring managers have struggled to find qualified candidates , while job applicants have been anxious for years about their ability to find new roles in a tough market. Go deeper : How North Korea perfected the crypto heist
Sam Sabin ·
State officials have largely taken securing the 2026 midterm elections into their own hands after nearly two years of federal program and funding cuts during the second Trump administration. Why it matters: The reduction in federal support has come as AI tools threaten to make it easier for hackers to uncover software vulnerabilities, launch cyberattacks, and spread disinformation that undermines trust in election results. Reality check: Just because a security flaw exists doesn't mean hackers can exploit it to manipulate election results. Nearly all U.S. elections maintain paper records that can be used to verify electronic tallies. Threat level: Election officials are preparing for everything from cyberattacks and AI-generated disinformation to physical threats, logistical disruptions and legal challenges. The big picture: State election officials relied on homeland security agencies, fusion centers, police, National Guard units and private cybersecurity firms to prepare for the midterms, John Milhofer, a spokesperson for the National Association of Secretaries of State, told Axios. That group and the National Association of State Election Directors are helping states exchange threat intelligence and connect with federal agencies and private sector experts. Catch up quick: State resources have become more important after the Trump administration scaled back federal election security assistance. CISA cut election security personnel and services in 2025, while federal funding for the Elections Infrastructure Information Sharing and Analysis Center, a key information-sharing network for election officials, ended that year. Election officials are receiving fewer election-specific threat briefings and less direct technical assistance, even after CISA outlined plans to restore some services in September. Zoom in: Michael Moore, chief information security officer for the Arizona secretary of state's office, told Axios that the state has been without a dedicated CISA cybersecurity adviser since March 2025. The Arizona Department of Homeland Security has helped fill the gap, providing security tools and monitoring services to smaller counties. On Election Day, Arizona is bringing together its state cybersecurity team, National Guard, the FBI and a representative from CISA's Region 9 office to coordinate responses to potential threats, Moore said. Moore's team has spent years conducting tabletop exercises covering cyberattacks, AI-generated impersonations of election officials, suspicious packages and other disruptions. Between the lines: Arizona is also getting threat intelligence from former CISA personnel who work in the space, election security nonprofits and officials in other states. Moore said his relationship with New Jersey's election security officials is particularly useful because his East Coast counterparts can warn him about threats hours before they might emerge in Arizona. What they're saying: A CISA spokesperson said in a statement that the agency will provide state and local government officials, including election officials and election vendors, "no-cost voluntary services" like vulnerability scanning and technical expertise, when they request it. "We are committed to supporting state and local elections officials to protect election infrastructure and safeguard our democracy," the spokesperson added. Yes, but: Moore said he still wants CISA to return to its 2024 staffing levels — and then double them. "If we are literally experiencing a cyberattack from a nation-state, it shouldn't be Arizona versus that nation-state," Moore said. "We're the United States of America. It should be a unified response." David Becker, executive director and founder of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, told reporters during a briefing Thursday that states have hired vendors and built their own networks to compensate for the federal retreat. "They might not be able to replace everything," Becker said. "They're not going to get the same bird's-eye national-level view of potential disinformation or potential cyber events." The bottom line: Election officials said they're prepared for disruptions, even if they can't prevent every attack. "The goal is prevent as much as we can, detect and recover," Moore said. "We're going to have some amount of disruption.... We're going to recover."
Sam Sabin ·
Voting machines across New York's Westchester County are rejecting paper ballots on Election Day, raising concerns about potential delays in one of the nation's most competitive House races. Why it matters: Results could be delayed for one of the country's most prominent House races, between Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Democratic nominee Cait Conley, as officials address a problem with paper ballots. Driving the news: The Westchester County Board of Elections said Tuesday it was aware of a problem preventing voting machines from accepting paper ballots at polling locations throughout the county. The Board of Elections said it is speaking with New York State officials and the Westchester County government "to address this issue and ensure that voting continues with as little disruption as possible." The cause remains unclear. Election officials initially blamed the thickness of paper ballots but later removed that explanation from their statement, per reports. New York Attorney General Letitia James wrote on X that her office is monitoring the issue. What they're saying: Lawler said officials were working with vendors to resolve the problem, while Conley reassured voters that their ballots would count. Westchester County government wrote on its website: "Let us be absolutely clear: Every eligible vote will be counted." What we're hearing: Voters in the county told Fox 5 NY that they had to fill out paper ballots instead of using the machines. Voters said their ballots were placed in a security box. Other voters shared discontent with the ballots issue on social media . Katie Miller , wife of Trump adviser Stephen Miller, claimed on X: "This is how the Left steals elections. Mike Lawler's competitive district and they are turning away voters." Context: The county covers roughly 30% of New York's 17th District, which Lawler represents. The contest has emerged as a key battleground race in Democrats' push to gain control of the House. Zoom out: The ballot-scanning problems come as technology vulnerabilities have been a key issue heading into the midterms, with researchers saying some vulnerabilities remain in plain sight. What's next: Voters at affected polling locations were urged to remain in line and cast their ballots.
Herb Scribner ·
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket officially don't care which side of a bet wins. There is no "house." They get their cut either way. It's a business model that's attracted billions of VC dollars. Yes, but: Kalshi and Polymarket should be pulling hard for Democrats in today's midterm elections. Even if that feels counterintuitive. Catch up quick: Prediction markets burst into the public consciousness two years ago, when their users correctly "picked" Donald Trump to beat Kamala Harris. It bestowed credibility at a time when public trust in traditional polling had cratered. Fast forward: More recently, however, they had electoral misses in Brazil and Israel. Three would be a trend. Both platforms currently have markets on Democrats sweeping Congress, with "yes" at around 75%. If that's how today plays out, it would further cement prediction market legitimacy. A Republican win in either chamber, however, would dump them into the same pot as pollsters — even if 75% probability includes a sizable improbability. Zoom in: Democrats are often more hostile to prediction markets than are Republicans, but companies like Kalshi and Polymarket don't have too much to fear from a Democrat-controlled Congress. Yes, there would probably be an uncomfortable hearing or two. But neither chamber would have veto-proof majorities, and the Trump administration has been very sympathetic to the industry. The real constraints, if any, are more likely to come via the Supreme Court. The bottom line: Political predictions generate much less revenue for Kalshi and Polymarket than do sports predictions, but they have a much longer tail.
Dan Primack ·
There's a lot at stake for energy in the midterms, from the fate of the bipartisan permitting deal to the growing backlash against data centers and electricity prices. Why it matters: The results could spotlight which energy topics resonate with voters — and which have become political liabilities. Gasoline and diesel prices have been big on the campaign trail, offering a chance to see how much voter frustration over energy costs matters at the ballot box. Data center politics: There are sharp differences between the parties, even though data centers aren't especially popular with either party's slate of candidates. Why it matters: The pace of the AI buildout affects power demand and emissions. State of play: 32.4% of Democratic candidates support moratoriums at the federal, state, or local level, compared to just 3.4% of Republicans, per Data Center Watch, which tracked hundreds of races. Zoom in: Meanwhile, Ballotpedia is tracking dozens of ballot measures on data centers, many of which would impose new restrictions. Ohio is a hot spot. Control and permitting: The outcome will affect the politics of the lame-duck session — and that means the politics of the bipartisan permitting deal. What they're saying: If Democrats take both chambers, "leaders might opt to wait until they hold the gavels next year to renegotiate compromises," the research firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note. Yes, but: A reminder that backers of the current bill think it's folly to expect political space to write a more liberal bill that President Trump would sign, or that could even pass the Senate. Threat level: What if the results are very close? ClearView notes that if Trump and allies contest the results, "weeks of post-election skirmishing could complicate passage of any bill." Political lessons: The results could offer clues about where energy and climate policy are headed. State of play: Exit polling is not famously precise, but it could provide a barometer of how much voters truly care — or not — about data centers. It's also worth watching how candidates who made high gas and diesel prices central to their campaigns fare tonight. My thought bubble: Keep an eye on the performance of progressive vs. centrist Democrats. If the latter overperform, it could be another sign that aggressive climate policies won't return to vogue with Dems. Zoom in: Let's say, for instance, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's (D) victory is even more of a blowout than expected. That could bolster more centrist, oil and gas-accepting candidates in the 2028 cycle (when he might run for president). The next Congress: Regardless of chamber control, don't look for many opportunities for big new energy laws if permitting goes kaput. Yes, but: There will be no shortage of messaging bills and positioning for the 2028 White House race. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) has pledged to bring back clean energy tax credits killed in the 2025 GOP budget law. What we're watching: Limited chances for common ground around nuclear power and geothermal. For instance, the wide-ranging Senate permitting bill contains several bipartisan geothermal bills that already cleared the House. Oversight power: If Democrats take control of either chamber, expect aggressive investigations of White House energy policies and investments, a topic we recently explored. State utility bosses: A number of states have elections for electricity regulators, who often exert powerful control over power prices and planning. Zoom in: One place to watch is Georgia, where two Democratic victories would flip party control of the state's Public Service Commission for the first time in decades. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has more. Governors: The winners of governors' races will have a big say in everything from oil and gas development to electricity prices. Zoom out: S&P Global has a nice look at energy differences in several governors' races, though a number of the contests are not especially competitive. Friction point: One place to watch is Texas, where oil and gas interests favor incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in his surprisingly tight race against Gina Hinojosa. Sign up here for Axios' Future of Energy newsletter.
Ben Geman ·
The Justice Department said Tuesday it will deploy about 1,000 election monitors to all 50 states for the first time ever to watch the polls. Why it matters: The unprecedented effort comes after courts repeatedly rejected the DOJ's efforts to force states to restrict voting for alleged noncitizens. It comes amid a long-running Trump administration push to fight voter fraud , which studies say isn't nearly as prevalent as the administration suggests. Driving the news : The department, in a statement early Tuesday, said one of its most important goals was to protect election integrity. "Today, the DOJ will further this mission by engaging in its largest monitoring effort in history—with approximately 1,000 election monitors and observers deployed, and, for the first time, in all 50 states," the department said. The department said observers would come from the DOJ, U.S. Attorney's offices, and staff from the Office of Personnel Management. What they're saying: "I am very proud we are deploying the largest monitoring effort in DOJ history, and pursuing transparency for elections in an assertive and nondiscriminatory manner," assistant attorney general Harmeet K. Dhillon said in the statement. The intrigue: Some local election officials have already expressed concerns that such a massive wave of observers could intimidate or otherwise interfere with voters. What to watch: The DOJ is still pursuing legal efforts in multiple states to have ballots segregated or otherwise impact counting.
Ben Berkowitz ·
Voters are about to decide whether public backlash against the health care industry translates into meaningful policy shifts. Why it matters: Health care has never been more expensive, and it's not going to get any cheaper without significant intervention. The big picture: It's hard to see Democrats not making health care affordability a top priority in the next Congress, regardless of whether they win only a narrow majority in the House or sweep both chambers in a blowout. But the party isn't aligned on an agenda, and a strong showing by progressives could drag things leftward. Reality check: Any Democratic victory — no matter the size — will be tempered by the realities of split government, with President Trump still in office for the next two years. Larger Democratic majorities may bring greater leverage in negotiations over spending packages or raising the debt limit. And the boldest changes will probably be reserved for the campaign trail, as 2028 presidential contenders begin to vie for the party's nomination. Here's what we're watching: Medicare for All vs. moderates: What happens in Michigan's Senate race — and Maine's, to some extent — will almost certainly shape how much sway progressives have in the next two years. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has made Medicare for All central to his campaign, unabashedly supporting the idea in a race that could determine which party has control of the Senate next year. The same is true of Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine's Senate race, though Jackson has a lower national profile than El-Sayed. But Medicare for All supporters looking for a vote on the measure face an uphill battle : Despite the policy's growing popularity among the public, moderates unwilling to abolish private insurance will make up a sizable portion of any Democratic majority. The doctors-turned-politicians: Doctors are on the ballot in key races this year, and the question is how much public trust translates into votes. El-Sayed, an epidemiologist who went to medical school but isn't a practicing physician, is one example. There's also pediatrician Annie Andrews, who's mounted a strong challenge to Republican Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina, and Ohio governor candidate Amy Acton, who has focused on pediatrics and preventive medicine. "We've seen in our research over the last six-plus years that [doctors are] among the most trusted potential candidates for office, hands down," said Erik Polyak, executive director of 314 Action. MAHA on the line: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s "Make America Healthy Again" movement has focused its attention largely on the Iowa governor's race in the final weeks of the election, going all in for Republican Zach Lahn, who's pledged to take on Big Agriculture interests and the use of farm chemicals. Calling it an "existential" vote, MAHA Action founder Tony Lyons told MAGA influencer Steve Bannon that the race will be "the test of what's possible in a state, of whether we can actually take the country back from these corrupt companies, from these corrupt politicians, and really protect people." California's tax plan: Golden State voters will decide the fate of a controversial one-time wealth tax on billionaires, with most of the proceeds to be used to fund health care services. The money is intended to partly make up for Republican cuts to federal Medicaid spending but the tax is opposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, a likely 2028 Democratic presidential contender. The measure tests voter sentiment in one of the bluest states to tax the super rich in order to fund health benefits — a potential prelude to a national debate over expanding the federal government's role in health care and how to fund it. Abortion ballot measures: Voters in four states will determine what reproductive rights in their states look like, another round of post-Roe abortion policymaking via ballot initiatives. Nevada and Virginia will consider constitutional amendments protecting the right to abortion, while Missouri will weigh a measure backed by the state legislature to repeal a 2024 pro-abortion rights amendment. Idaho voters will determine the fate of a state law guaranteeing a right to abortion until fetal viability, generally considered to begin around 23 to 24 weeks into a pregnancy, or after that in the case of a medical emergency.
Caitlin Owens ·