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Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are living out their midterm nightmares — with nominees they didn't want and former colleagues they no longer control. Why it matters: Together, Schumer and Thune are stuck with five Senate races in which their party establishments thought they had a better chance of winning with someone else. 🤠 Texas: Thune's efforts to stop Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from winning the party's Senate nomination failed. Now Republicans are spending more than $329 million to defeat state Rep. James Talarico— and it's still a nail-biter. 🍑 Georgia: GOP leaders couldn't convince Gov. Brian Kemp to run. The eventual nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, has struggled to keep pace with fundraising juggernaut Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). GOP money is in retreat. 🦞 Maine: Schumer endorsed Gov. Janet Mills, but Graham Platner's implosion left Democrats with backup Troy Jackson against Sen. Susan Collins. ⛴️ Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens and made a name for himself nationally. But he won by just one point even though primary polls showed him up by double digits. He's now polling within the margin of error against the GOP nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers. 🏈 Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan ran as a progressive, said she would not support Schumer as leader and bested establishment-backed Rep. Angie Craig. But Cook Political Report moved her race against former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya toward Republicans even as it shifted other races toward Democrats. To make matters worse, Thune's and Schumer's former colleagues are creating fresh headaches by boosting candidates across the aisle. Former Sen. Joe Manchin, who flipped to independent in 2024 after being elected as a Senate Democrat, is campaigning for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), as Semafor reported. Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema , who also flipped from Democrat to independent before leaving office, is boosting Republican Jay Feely in her home House district. She even voted for him in the GOP primary, as Axios scooped. Former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) endorsed Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in his reelection this summer. The other side : In two red states, Schumer landed arguably the best candidates he could get. Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper has all but put North Carolina to bed, and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is keeping it too close for Sen. Jon Husted's comfort in Ohio.

Senate Republicans are weighing three last-ditch spending moves that would have been unimaginable six months ago: a cash infusion for Mississippi and even more money for South Carolina and Kansas. Why it matters: It's been 94 years since Kansas elected a Democratic senator, 44 years for Mississippi and 28 for South Carolina. But panic is spreading through the Republican Party. "The wall has broken. The enemy is inside the fort," one national Republican political operative told Axios. "We are now fighting hand to hand." The Senate map, which once looked impregnable for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is now full of vulnerabilities. Democratic challengers are polling within the margin of error in more than half a dozen deep-red states, according to internal GOP polls. The other side: "We're nervous about Alaska. We're nervous about Michigan. We're still going to hold the Senate at the end," said another operative. Zoom in: Two weeks ago, when Senate Leadership Fund decided to take out a $5 million "insurance policy" in South Carolina, operatives took a hard look at Idaho, South Dakota and Mississippi. At the time, they concluded they didn't need to spend any money in those states, according to a person familiar with the matter. But Senate Republicans are now reviewing the Mississippi race and may need to spend there to protect Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith from a surprisingly competitive bid by Democratic district attorney Scott Colom . Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC for Senate Democrats, announced a $1.2 million investment in the race on Tuesday. Zoom out: In early June, SLF started to reinforce a Midwestern red wall to protect the GOP majority, reserving $28 million in TV advertising in Ohio and $11 million in Iowa . Those investments have ballooned to $93 million in Ohio and $53 million in Iowa. After an initial $5 million buy in South Carolina, SLF's spending has increased to $8.5 million, according to AdImpact. And a super PAC linked to Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is spending another $500,000 in South Carolina. SLF, which is linked to Senate GOP leadership, has earmarked $14 million for Kansas, and has spent nearly $12 million there so far. "No Republican seat is safe this cycle," another operative told Axios. What we're hearing: Some GOP Senate candidates do, in fact, appear safe this cycle. Republicans aren't overly concerned about Sens. Ashley Moody in Florida or Mike Rounds in South Dakota. The intrigue: The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $31.4 million last month, but its coffers appear to be drained. It took out a $20 million loan as it spends aggressively on its coordinated campaign strategy. SLF ended September with $155 million in cash on hand, according to its FEC filing. The group has spent or reserved $169 million worth of video ads since Oct. 1, according to AdImpact. Even President Trump promised to unload another $100 million before Election Day in a Tuesday post on Truth Social, bringing the total from his super PACs to $400 million. The bottom line: Republicans can still maintain their Senate majority, but none of the polling is giving them a great deal of confidence that they will do so.

John Thune says Republicans will outperform the polls in toss-up senate races despite shifting campaign cash away from Georgia and into Kansas.