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All survey respondents said they expect the BOJ to set the stage for a rate hike in December or January, as inflation and wages continue to rise.

Interest rates could rise further in 2027 as the Fed fights inflation. Here’s what could drive rate hikes and what investors should watch.

High inflation and competition for investor dollars are helping keep longer-term interest rates elevated, economists say.

America’s economic ambition should reach well beyond slowing price increases. We should be expanding what this country can produce and what its people can achieve. The Federal Reserve should hold interest rates steady in October while it assesses September’s increase. Before making capital more expensive again, officials must account for the businesses, homes and opportunities […]

The US Federal Reserve appears set to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week, analysts say, despite stubbornly high inflation and with markets pricing in at least one rate hike before year-end.The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet...

Amid high mortgage rates and persistent inflation, beleaguered homeowners are seeing simple accounting errors go unfixed, leaving them to fight for their homes with little help from the CFPB.

Data: FactSet; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios Traders are betting that oil prices will remain elevated for longer than they anticipated just weeks ago, threatening to prolong the inflationary pressures that businesses and consumers have weathered for months. Why it matters: Oil inventories have helped cushion the blow from disrupted Middle Eastern supplies, but much of that buffer has been depleted since the war began. The possibility of sustained price pressures into next year throws into doubt the logic that central banks traditionally rely upon to look through energy price shifts — that they represent a one-time shift in relative prices, not an ongoing inflationary process. That leaves the global economy more vulnerable to another energy price surge, with potentially more lasting consequences for growth, inflation and interest rates than energy shocks of yore. By the numbers: Oil futures for delivery in 2027 — contracts to buy or sell crude next year — have climbed to their highest levels since the Iran war began. Prices for January 2027 are up 17% since early September, to more than $97 a barrel. Markets still anticipate some relief next year, but considerably less than they expected just weeks ago. It's a reversal from late summer, when hopes of easing tensions with Iran and a recovery in Middle Eastern oil supplies briefly pushed futures lower. June futures have jumped 18%, to $88 a barrel, while December futures are up 13%, to about $81. State of play: Crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, surpassed prewar levels in the week ending Oct. 18, according to the Wall Street Journal . But the costly workarounds enabling that recovery have their limits. Those include ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, where security risks have deterred some vessels. "You're coming up against limitations on actually how much volume you can move out of the Middle East, even with these processes," Christopher Haines, global head of oil at Energy Aspects, tells Axios. Restoring confidence among shipping companies and insurers that vessels won't be attacked will be "exceptionally hard," Haines adds. Zoom in: Economist Robin Brooks argues that oil prices reflect higher shipping costs and fears of further attacks more than actual shortages. Using earlier monthly data, he estimates that Persian Gulf crude exports had recovered to 91% of prewar levels, with a "temporary fear factor" adding at least $20 a barrel. What to watch: The Trump administration is seeking to ease fuel prices ahead of the midterms, most recently by allowing more Russian diesel onto the market. But relief may be minimal: Ukrainian attacks have damaged Russian refineries, while sanctions complicate repairs, limiting additional exports, Haines says. The bottom line: "The market narrative has shifted from "transitory" to "new normal" right before our eyes," Bob Elliot, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, wrote Wednesday morning .

U.K. inflation rose by a hotter-than-expected 3.5% in the 12 months to September, driven by the surging cost of motor fuels.

Housing data deteriorated further in September, according to separate reports Tuesday.

The AI boom is sucking up all the capital. The Federal Reserve is raising rates to try to cool inflation. And one sector is bearing the brunt of the pain from both: housing . The big picture: The situation is lose-lose for both homebuilders and homebuyers. Builders are facing more expensive capital and bidding for scarce construction-related resources. Would-be buyers are being quoted some of the highest mortgage rates of this century. New September housing starts data out Tuesday morning puts an exclamation point on what has been a slow-moving disaster for a sector that plays an outsized role in the economic cycle and in Americans' basic living standards. By the numbers: The number of housing units started by builders fell 5.2% last month, the Census Bureau said , to 1.22 million. It's down 7.4% year over year and near post-pandemic lows. Starts of single-family homes fell 4.6% to their lowest level since March 2023. Pending home sales fell 7.3% last month, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday morning, to the lowest since the data was tracked going back to 2001. Homebuilder sentiment fell this month to its lowest level since 2012, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday. State of play: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 7.4% earlier this month, Freddie Mac said in its most recent weekly reading. The rate was briefly higher than that in 2023, but has not been consistently above that level since the fall of 2000. That has kept homebuyers on the sidelines — while a parallel rise in borrowing costs for developers has made it harder for new projects to pencil out. In effect, the bottomless demand for capital from AI hyperscalers and the U.S. government has to squeeze something, and that something has been the housing sector. Residential investment has subtracted from overall GDP for five of the last six quarters. Zoom out: Housing affordability is the crux of Americans' broader dissatisfaction with economic conditions, and all signs point to it getting worse, not better. For all the bipartisan emphasis on increasing housing supply — most prominently in the passage of a law to encourage more building earlier this year — conditions are weighted against a building boom. Housing developers are competing with data center builders for labor and materials like copper, concrete and HVAC equipment. Of note: Restrictionist immigration policy has also crimped the supply of construction workers . "Nationwide, more than one-third of builders reported immigration enforcement activity in their market areas during the past month, causing construction delays and discouraging legal workers from reporting to work," said NAHB chairman Bill Owens, an Ohio homebuilder, in the sentiment release . Between the lines: An unfortunate side effect of relying on Fed interest rate policy for macroeconomic stabilization is that interest-sensitive sectors, particularly housing, take it on the chin when the economy shows signs of overheating. It's particularly problematic now, when persistent undersupply of housing is a defining economic challenge of our age. The bottom line: The current alignment of interest rates, housing supply and construction costs isn't making anybody happy. Builders can't afford to build, buyers can't afford to buy, and even the people sitting pretty with pre-2022 mortgages can't afford to move.

AI giants keep borrowing as rates rise, blunting the central bank’s main tool against inflation.